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Juniper Predicts Major Global Shift to Contactless on Heels of U.S. EMV Push

A new study from Juniper Research is forecasting that more than half (53 percent) of global transactions at the point of sale will be contactless within five years, compared with just 15 percent this year.

The new research, “POS & mPOS Terminals: Vendor Strategies, Positioning & Market Forecasts 2017-2022,” expects adoption in the U.S. to rise sharply over the period, with contactless jumping from less than 2 percent of transactions this year to 34 percent by 2022.

Customer dissatisfaction at the slower speeds of chip card transactions, coupled with burgeoning contactless infrastructure, also boost smartphone-based contactless payments, according to the consultancy.

“While U.S. card issuers haven’t yet made contactless a priority, the extremely positive response across Europe, both from merchants and consumers, suggests the U.S. would see very rapid migration at POS if and when contactless cards become mainstream,” says research author Dr. Windsor Holden, who leads forecasting and consultancy at Juniper Research.

Also driving the shift to contactless are markets where contactless has been heavily promoted, such as Poland and the U.K., and adoption has soared. What’s more, mandates both from Visa and Mastercard mean that all POS terminals in many markets must be contactless-enabled by 2020, Juniper notes.

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